An Iolausian endeavour : exploring why the regenerative capacities of insurgent actors weaken

Abstract

For 'insurgent actors' like al-Qaeda or Jaish al-Mahdi, the ability to replace their losses with new recruits is one that can significantly affect the likely intensity and success of their campaigns. Weakening this capacity to regenerate is thus a seemingly promising means of combating insurgent threats. However, being able to manipulate insurgent regeneration is far from a simple undertaking; one that a number of governments have struggled to realise. The central purpose of this thesis is to provide a greater understanding of how governments can favourably influence an insurgent actor's capacity to regenerate. It seeks to achieve this by exploring: why do the regenerative capacities of insurgent actors weaken? The exploration of this question takes the form of a two-level examination of three insurgent actors whose capacity to regenerate weakened in the past. Namely, the Front de liberation du Quebec (FLQ) of Canada, the Movimiento de Liberaci6n Nacional - Tupamaros (MLN-T) of Uruguay, and the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) of Northern Ireland. At the first level, this thesis examines the extent to which the FLQ, MLN-T, and PIRA's regenerative capacities weakened because of a 'decrease in recruitment' and an 'increase in attrition'. This thesis found that, while a declining intake of recruits played the greater role in weakening the FLQ's capacity to regenerate; it played at most an equal, and arguably lesser, role than a burgeoning loss of pers01mel in weakening the MLN-T and PIRA's regenerative capacities. These results raise implications about: (1) how the literature conceptualises the relative strength of a decrease in recruitment and an increase in attrition as catalysts of regenerative decay; and (2) how policy-makers should approach the task of weakening an insurgent actor's capacity to regenerate. At the second level, this thesis examines the validity of five prescriptions that are prominently highlighted in the literature as being the most efficient means for a government to either reduce an insurgent actor's recruitment or increase its attrition. This thesis found that, concerning the former, 'discrediting the insurgent actor's ideology' has considerable strength, employing 'selective government repression' has mixed validity, and 'ameliorating grievances' has little explanatory power. Regarding the latter, this thesis found that 'improving the government's intelligence collection capabilities' has clear validity, while 'restricting civil liberties' has little explanatory power. These results raise implications about how governments should seek to weaken an insurgent actor's capacity to regenerate by either attempting to reduce its intake of recruits or increase its loss of personnel.