Population trends in Zaire and their implications 1885-2005

Abstract

The study attempted to appraise the demographic transition in Zaire over a period of one hundred and twenty years, Statistical investigations were based on population estimates and reverse projections established for the years 1885-1925, countrywide enumerations and surveys throughout 1925-1970, and projections developed for the period 1970-2005. Politico-economic and socio-cultural factors which were closely related to population changes are pointed out to explain observations and findings. Implications, for the future, of current population trends are also examined with an overview of Zaire’s recently stated policy of “Desired Births”. The research work has demonstrated that, during the era of Belgian rule, population changes seem to have been affected less by traditional attitudes on births than by political, social and economic conditions rooted in the old Leopoldian system and exposure to new diseases. It has also indicated that the end-year of World War II appeared to mark the demographic divide in Zaire. Prior to that year, Zaire initially witnessed a certain depopulation until about the mid-1910s, followed by a short non-growth period, before the total population grew at a modestly increasing rate. This expansion tended to reduce considerably during the years of the Second World War, as a result of social disruption and harsh conditions imposed upon the indigenes to contribute to the “war effort”. After World War II, really important changes in demographic trends were taking place with increasing and radically innovated measures to promote rapid population growth. Since the mid-fifties, Zaire appeared to be a country towards sustained and rapid population increase and, given the estimated rate of growth; it had entered the era of population explosion by the time of independence attainment in 1960. The study investigated particularly the demographic characteristics of the low and high fertility areas. It was found reasons for lower fertility were very likely more social than pathological, as historically the areas in question appeared to be (i) particularly affected by social disturbances, (ii) a place of convergence of most aborting and sterilizing diseases, (iii) exhibiting unfavourable intermediate variables, and (iv) senders but not receivers of migration. In this regards, the study suggests areas of further and appropriate investigations especially the extent to which lower fertility still persist. Projected estimates with 1970 as base year to the century indicate that Zaire shares in common with populations of most developing countries a high rate of growth resulting almost entirely from natural increase, a rising life expectancy at birth and continuous rejuvenation of the age structure especially in the groups of school- and prime working- persons. The study has shown that the 1970 population of Zaire will double in the early 1990s, a development which entails important socioeconomic implications and requires a more rigorous definition of “Desired Birth” , if the recently stated policy is to mark the end of an era already casting its shadow a long way ahead.