Water management in the developing town: a complex systems perspective
Date
2010
Authors
Moglia, Magnus Mikael
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Abstract
Provision of water services is a critical strategy for addressing worldwide poverty, and this is one of the most pressing challenges of current times and is linked to population growth and climate change. Progress has been slow in achieving even the Millennium Development Goals aimed at improving coverage of adequate water services and professionals are struggling to cope with the diversity and scale of situations. Water services provision is a context-dependent process and many types of situations are very challenging, such as that of small developing towns. This thesis addresses the problems of urban centres in Pacific Island Countries and the aim is to provide formal explanations of difficulties in these locations to support recommendations that recognize local constraints and opportunities to best practice management. This is achieved largely by employing a perspective based on the science of Complex Adaptive Systems. This perspective has been
chosen in recognition that water management incorporates complex interactions between social, technical and natural systems. The research is case study based, focusing primarily on Tarawa in the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati. The methodology includes historical review of the case study, and the use of historical review, as well as interviews and observation in the field as well as a cross-cutting email-based Delphi survey. This has generated qualitative and quantitative data to allow for the formulation of scientific models, an Agent Based Model describing the complex interactions involved in water service delivery; and Bayesian Network models describing the factors impacting on the chances of successful management interventions. With improved explanation of the complex situation, this has been used to support the formulation of a strategic and adaptive governance framework; aiming to introduce much needed organisational memory, and a consistent strategic direction set on the basis of the effective stakeholder interaction. By recognising weakness in capacity, it is possible to turn these into strengths by building and utilising local knowledge and commitment.
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Urban water management, Bayesian Networks, Subjective Logic, Agent Based Modelling, Delphi survey, Socio-technical analysis, Integrated assessment, Urban water governance, Small towns, Kiribati, Pacific Islands
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Thesis (PhD)