Implications of Changes in Consumer Attitudes and Preferences on Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption: A System Dynamics and Choice Modelling Approach

Abstract

With increasing awareness on environmental issues and fossil fuel dependency, a variety of alternative fuel powertrains have emerged into the vehicle market, providing vehicle consumers an unprecedented selection of transportation powertrain choices. In light of the global momentum of vehicle powertrain innovation and re-selection, it is of great importance to investigate the choices of today's vehicle consumers and the implications of consumer choices on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). In consumer choice modelling and consumer decision-making theories, individual preferences and opinions on vehicle purchases are quantitatively investigated. Since the adoption of new transportation powertrains is also a societal behaviour that involves multiple stakeholders and intertwined dynamic feedback, the potential changes of consumer attitudes and preferences should be taken into account as well when understanding AFV adoption. Combining two modelling methods, system dynamics modelling and discrete choice modelling, this thesis investigates the implications of changes in consumer choices on AFV adoption, especially from the aspect of consumer attitudes and preferences. Based on the Australian vehicle market's diverse and purely market-driven environment, the research examines dynamic consumer attitudes and preferences and provides insights for vehicle markets that are more characterized by policy interventions. The research depicts consumer choices in vehicle powertrain selection using a system dynamics model incorporating the results of a discrete choice model. The research is carried out in three main stages. First, preliminary dynamic hypotheses are proposed through exploring literature in individual decision-making, and analysing the observed historical trends in the market. Second, a market survey carrying out a stated choice experiment is conducted. A corresponding discrete choice model is performed with data collected through the stated choice experiment. The choice model captures quantitative information about consumer preferences and opinions within their decision-making process. It provides data input for consumer choice parameters in the research model and qualitative insights that contribute to final system dynamics structure. Finally, by incorporating the key dynamics identified in market observations with quantitative inputs from the discrete choice model, a final system dynamics model is formulated and implemented. This dynamic model expands the dimension of the discrete choice model and provides a holistic and dynamic view on vehicle consumer choices in AFV adoption. The research model reveals that allowing timely feedback around consumer attitudes and preferences generates substantial behaviour changes in AFV adoption. The dynamic consumer attitudes and preferences affect powertrains' adoption paths significantly, especially for powertrains that are more recent and share less similarities with traditional powertrains. Furthermore, potential policy interventions are explored in the model through scenarios that address revealed characteristics of AFV adoption. This work shows that considering changes in consumer attitudes and preferences is important in understanding and forecasting adoption of AFVs, and wisely taking advantages of such dynamics can provide powerful momentum to improve adoption performance of alternative powertrains.