Conflicted forestry scientists and climate change negotiators : a critical analysis of the role of the intergovernmental panel on climate change and its forestry scientists in developing scientific guidance and rules on land use, land-use change and forestry under the kyoto protocol

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2014

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Fry, Ian William

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This study traces the history of the development of the rules that apply to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) under the Kyoto Protocol and follows the role of various IPCC scientists who have contributed to providing specific guidance on matters relating to LULUCF (For the purpose of this study they are called IPCC Authors). The study focuses primarily on forestry issues as these have been the most contentious in the context of accounting rules associated with the Kyoto Protocol. The aim of the study is to critically assess the role of IPCC Authors associated with developing guidance for accounting for LULUCF within the Kyoto Protocol and to ascertain whether the roles of some IPCC Authors cross-over from the provision of scientific information to outcome determined policy prescription. The study then considers whether this possible cross-over is driven by conflicts of interest. This is a unique longitudinal study lasting fourteen years of participant observation. It also represents an extensive literature review tracking decision text and related literature from the commencement of the Kyoto Protocol through to the development of rules for the Second Commitment Period of the Protocol. It traces the evolution of the rules associated with LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol from the period 1997 through to 2011. It explores the numerous LULUCF decisions that evolved during this period and analyses the implications of these decision. It considers whether these decisions have orientations that suit the economic or national interests of certain individuals and nations. The study was taken from within a unique perspective as the author was engaged actively in the negotiation of the LULUCF rules for the Kyoto Protocol as a representative of the Government of Tuvalu. This has enabling a unique insider's insight into the negotiations process. The study follows the path of a number of key IPCC Authors who played a dual role of negotiator for their country in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations and IPCC Authors in the development of guidance. The role of other influential IPCC Authors are also explored and given context within the negotiation process. Due to various public pressures and concerns about the role of it Chairman, the IPCC developed a conflict of interest policy. This study the IPCC policy with other models developed in other spheres of science. Literature on COI is prominent with respect to the medical and pharmaceutical industry but is relatively scant with respect to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs). Consideration is given on how to improve COI measures to ensure the full breadth of conflicts are addressed. It should be noted that this study is not a criticism of the IPCC as a whole. On the whole it operates effectively as a boundary organisation even though it was established as an intergovernmental organisation. This study identifies a core group of scientists with a particular interest in LULUCF that appear to have infiltrated the inner machinations of the organisation. The consequences of their roles are considered to be detrimental to the overall standing of the institution.

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Thesis (PhD)

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