Contributions to public policy debate using quantitative analysis: NSW environmental policy 1979-2010
Date
2017
Authors
Mamouney, Louisa Peace
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Abstract
In this thesis I build an understanding of environmental policy
within the Australian state jurisdiction of New South Wales (NSW)
between 1979 and 2010 using quantitative comparisons and other
analyses. These analyses provide a distinct perspective on the
development of environmental policy during a time of sustained
environmental interest in the social and political spheres.
Previous work on these topics has focused on qualitative inquiry,
but I demonstrate that quantitative methods can provide a
broader-scale evidentiary base within which to consider
qualitative findings.
My primary research objective is to explore how quantitative data
on environmental policies can be used to understand practical and
theoretical public policy issues. This includes change in policy
effort over time, trends in the use of different types of policy
instruments, and changes in the policy agenda and policy dynamics
and factors important in policy success or failure. I obtained
quantitative data on environmental policy easily, and showed its
analysis contributes to practical and theoretical public policy
issues. For example, the data showed a three-fold increase in
policy making under Labor Governments post-1995 but a growing
diversion between policy effort (as measured by number of
policies made) and public opinion. This period saw no trend away
from using regulation to deliver policy outcomes but a relative
strengthening in the importance of strategies, education,
incentives and schemes.
The policy agenda early in the study period focused on general
environment, coast, soils, rivers, forests and catchments, but
later shifted to cover flora and fauna, pollution, climate
change, waste, water quantity, wetlands and marine issues. There
was a consistent lineage in the environmental agenda from the
relatively similar Wran, Unsworth, Greiner and Fahey Governments,
to the Carr and onto the Iemma Government covering 1979 and 2008.
This ended under the Rees and Keneally governments (2008-10),
with a markedly different environmental agenda.
I looked for evidence of models of policy dynamics, and observed
policy change following three established rational, incremental
and punctuated equilibrium models in 18 of the 24 patterns
observed. The other six patterns were characterised by energetic
periods of policy change over long timeframes, not fitting
established models. I propose an additional model of policy
dynamics to explain these observations and a salience-wickedness
matrix to relate the four models and as a conceptual tool for how
policy dynamics can be influenced. This develops understanding of
the fluid nature of policy dynamics rather than fixing on
competing models.
I also used quantitative analysis to examine the factors related
to policy success. Between 1979 and 2010, 25 factors in the
policy process were linked to policy success, 22 factors were not
linked to policy success and another 22 factors were generally
present. This work narrows the range of factors that might have a
causal relationship with policy success, and although limited,
could be used to further evaluate predictors of success, or
inform policy design.
I recognise the constraints of this work. Constraints relate to
the assumptions used, simplification required in order to utilize
quantitative methods and on the broader applicability of the
research. Despite this caution, the work presents a basis for a
deeper understanding of the practical reality for government,
where intent mixes with political, social and economic
constraints. It shows the considerable potential for a broader
conception of policy research, exploring new ways to study and
synthesise accessible information to enhance our knowledge of
Australian public policy.
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Keywords
environment, environmental policy, New South Wales, public policy, quantitative methods
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Thesis (PhD)
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DOI
10.25911/5d69086429cdf