The economic feasibility of a national drought reserve of grain
Date
1970
Authors
Toft, Ian Harold
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Abstract
In Australia, rainfall is recognized as being both
low and variable. Losses, frequently severe, occur
through failures in crop production and through mortality
and lost production in livestock industries. Various
attempts have been made to measure the effects of droughts
as they occur in Australia. This effect is felt
directly of course in primary industries. Estimates of
the cost of sheep losses which have been made by
Franklin [1] and by Davidson [2] vary considerably.
Davidson uses an estimating procedure which attempts to
measure the effect of drought sheep mortality on subsequent
flock growth. Taking a "measuring horizon" of 20 years,
he obtains an estimate of a total discounted loss over
the 20 years of approximately $1,300 million. Franklin's
estimate, which was not discounted, is much larger.
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