Santow, Marjorie Gisela
Description
The thesis falls naturally into two parts, with the first
being concerned with the construction and validation of a model
and the second with the use of the model as an experimental tool.
In the first part, comprising Chapters One to Four, an examination
of historical and contemporary models of population growth led to
the decision to study changes in fertility by means of a biological
microsimulation model. This model was tested against Hutterite data
after the reasons for using such a...[Show more] model had been discussed, and
after the "best" input data had been selected and variations in
these data tested on the model. The main emphasis of the second part of the thesis, comprising
Chapters Five to Eight, was the testing of the effect on
Yoruba fertility of variations in the duration of the post partum
period of non-susceptibility to conception and in the level of
infant and child mortality rates; further simulations were performed
to discover the impact on fertility of the use of contraception
to attain different family sizes both with and without the additional
effect of infant and child mortality. The model was also used to
test the efficiency of the Brass method of estimating childhood
survivorship rates under different levels of fertility and mortality.
Low fertility simulations were performed to assess the effect
of different spacing strategies on ultimate family size. The simulations quantified our notions of the extent to
which the Westernisation of the Yoruba is capable of producing
an increase in average parity, one facet of this Westernisation
being the widespread abandonment of long periods of post partum
sexual abstinence without the compensatory adoption of efficient
contraception. Declines in the infant mortality rate were also
seen as an aspect of "modernisation" which has contributed to increased fertility, and suggestions were made for further
simulations to test the magnitude of the increases which could be
expected to occur through decreased levels of adult morbidity
and mortality. As one would neither want morbidity and mortality
rates to revert to former levels, nor be able to reinstate the
post partum taboo to its previous level of importance, suggestions
are presented for the institution of effective family planning
programmes. Bearing in mind, also, the results of the low fertility
simulations of the penultimate chapter, some indication is given
of the desirable progression of the rationale for the use of
contraception.
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