Design and analysis of quasi-experiments in landscape ecology: responses of fauna to landscape vegetation transformation in South-Eastern NSW
Date
2016
Authors
Cunningham, Ross Benjamin
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Abstract
The context for this work is the application of statistical
science in the study of interrelationships between fauna and
environments undergoing change in landscape ecology. The core of
the thesis is a collection of papers which can be viewed in two
ways: 1) a set of major studies in statistical practice in the
field of ecology and 2) as contributions to new knowledge on the
effects of landscape vegetation transformation on fauna, in
particular birds, in south-eastern Australia. These papers
exhibit effective contributions to ecology and conservation of
wildlife through an ability to understand ecological issues from
a statistical perspective. The focus in this thesis is as much
on scientific process as it is on biological outcomes.
The introductory chapter provides an overview of some of the
statistical thinking behind my contributions to four major
projects through statistical design and statistical modelling,
and highlights some key findings and new understandings in
ecology.
Key roles in the research presented include:
• Recognising natural systems in the landscape worthy of study
and seizing the opportunity to study them (ecological
serendipity). ‘Treatments’ (ecological contrasts) are
selected and planned and are assigned randomly in true
experiments; in quasi-experiments, treatments may already exist,
are not randomly assigned but can be taken advantage of.
• Formulating projects and asking interesting and important
questions.
• Considering the ‘best’ study design to yield high quality
data suitable for addressing the key questions.
• Overseeing the implementation of the design, fieldwork
protocols, and providing input into data collection and
collation.
• Formulating statistical models for analysis.
• Undertaking all of the data analysis and taking
responsibility for statistical analysis and resulting inferences.
Where necessary, adapting existing methodologies suitable for
solving the problem at hand.
• Developing suitable statistical presentation of results.
• Interpreting and explaining results.
• Writing scientific articles and submitting them for
publication.
Statistical topics and methods include the design of large-scale
quasi-experiments in landscape ecology, and a range of powerful
and flexible statistical modelling frameworks for the analysis of
a diverse range of data types and complex data structures.
Interdisciplinary collaboration has resulted in many significant
scientific contributions to ecological knowledge in the study of
relationships between faunal biodiversity and landscape
transformation. In particular, the importance of statistical
aspects of experimental design in large-scale, long-term research
studies has been demonstrated. Many new insights into effects of
plantation establishment and subsequent maturation on different
groups of biota have been gained. Cross-sectional and temporal
responses to revegetation, regrowth, and remnant vegetation at
multiple spatial scales have been quantified. Composite indices
have been developed for classifying biodiversity values of farms
by novel applications of statistical ideas. Furthermore,
significant contributions have been made in developing sound
statistical methodology for the study of long-term trends in
reporting rates of birds, using structurally complex
presence-absence data. These methods have been recently adapted
by Birdlife Australia and now form the basis for summarising
trends in terrestrial birds.
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Statistical science, experimental design, quasi-experiments, statistical inference, statistical modelling and analysis, landscape ecology, conservation science, vegetation change, fauna
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Thesis (PhD)
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