Unravelling the maze of multilateral environmental agreements: a macroscopic analysis of international environmental law and governance for the anthropocene

Abstract

Earth has entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where humans have become a major driver of global environmental change. Many believe, however, that current international environmental law is a maze of international agreements, and it is unsuitable for navigating the Anthropocene. It is generally agreed that, for global sustainability, this institutional maze needs to be modelled in ways more appropriately aligned with the functioning of the Earth system itself.

For the purpose of improving the alignment, this PhD thesis explores the structural and functional dynamics of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) as a systemic whole in relation to Earth system dynamics. The thesis begins with a preliminary review of international environmental law through the lens of a specific systems theory called complex adaptive systems. It then provides two parallel empirical studies on the macroscopic structure and function of the MEA system. In terms of the structure, I quantitatively analysed and characterized the topological properties of the dynamic web of 747 MEAs as approximated by 1,001 cross-references found in their texts. This network analysis provided novel insights into how MEAs have self-organized into an interlocking network with complex topology and what the emergent order looks like. In terms of the function, I conducted a qualitative case study on ocean acidification to examine whether the networked system of MEAs is autonom! ously capable of filling the regulatory gap through mutual adjustments. Inherent weaknesses in the polycentric order were observed, which led to the conclusion that a new MEA on ocean acidification is necessary. Despite the interlocking structure, the MEA system is currently limited by its design to a piecemeal approach to global environmental governance.

The conceptual and empirical studies provided several implications for the design of international environmental law in the Anthropocene. In particular, the thesis makes a case that the absence of an international environmental grundnorm is preventing a more purposive, systemic continuum of laws, one that would ensure policy coherence across Earth's subsystems. The thesis concludes that international environmental law needs a clearly agreed, unifying goal to which all international regulatory regimes are legally bound to contribute. I suggest that this goal should be about the protection of the integrity of Earth's life-support systems.