Leverage and Time-Varying Effects of Monetary Policy on the Stock Market

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Bernhard, S.
Vermeulen, P.

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Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

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Using high-frequency identification, we investigate leverage of the firm and economy-wide leverage as determinants of the sensitivity of a firm's stock price to monetary policy announcements. We show that the effect of economy-wide leverage is substantially larger than the effect of the firm's own leverage. It is sufficient for the response of a firm's stock price to strengthen that other firms in the economy become more leveraged. We further show that economy-wide leverage fluctuations explain the time-varying effects of monetary policy on stock prices. Our results are robust controlling for a variety of common business cycle variables and household leverage.

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Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Working Papers

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