Time-series analyses of food commodity prices in Jharkhand (July 2019 - June 2020)

Abstract

Covid-19 pandemic in India has had a disastrous effect on the economy. There are sharp differences in the assessments of the impact on the agricultural sector. One of the main constraints is lack of detailed data. In an attempt to understand how food supply chains are impacted, we have undertaken detailed studies of three states: Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Meghalaya. Here the focus is on Jharkhand. An aspect of food supply chains is wholesale and retail food prices. We examine these in relation to pre-pandemic levels, the divergence between them and their time varying volatility. A set of time series models are estimated to throw light on prices of rice, potato, tomato and onion in one major market centre, Ranchi. Our analysis does not suggest food price stabilisation at the prepandemic level.