Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections

Abstract

We project gross domestic product (GDP) for 140 world economies from 2020 to 2050 based on United Nation's demographic projections, the International Monetary Fund's GDP statistics and estimates of po- tential labour productivity derived from the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and a methodology published by the Australian Treasury. We review the conceptual framework un- derpinning this model, and identify its core assumptions. Finally, we highlight potential applications for this model, including: considering the dispersion of global economic activity||assessing the potential scale of activity across dierent trading blocs||and quantifying the impact of domestic policy reform scenarios in individual economies. Rather than provide an exhaustive analysis of the results, we make the data and results freely available. Show more