The election prospects : an ANU Convocation luncheon address given in December 1977 by David Butler

Abstract

Recorded 6 or 16 December 1977. -- The luncheon was chaired by Dr Colin Hughes, who also gives Dr Butler an introduction. Dr Butler starts his address by taking the responsibility for the current use of the word sypology in political terms - explaining how it had its origins and what the consequences were. He then explains what is involved in analysis and political prediction and gives an example of how this works, describing how the many possibilities can be whittled down to just a few probabilities; and the use of opinion polls in choosing between these probabilities for the most likely outcome. He then outlines the various difficulties experienced by the experts in attempting to predict the results at the Australian Federal Elections being held at the time of his address. Dr Butler's address lasted for 25 minutes and he then answers questions from his convocation audience. These questions include subjects such as whether or not he thinks a government would be more effective if its term of office was to last for 5 years rather than 3 and by what method could Australian students be presuaded to study more Australian Political History. Dr Butler continues to answer questions from his audience, questions including subjects such as whether or not he thinks there is any substance in the theory regarding swings in certain seats being higher than others due to the number of voters holding the same type of voting preferences; the influence of personal votes on certain seats; what the consequences would be if there were to be a tied vote for the House of Representatives and in general what factors contribute to late swings in an election, and in particular, in which direction the voting preferences in Queensland will be likely to swing; and whether or not he thinks that there is likely to be any changes in the present system of democratic government; and if so what effect those changes might have. Dr Butler's address lasted for 17 minutes and he is then thanked for his address by the chairman of the Convocation.