Gorgens, Jakob (Tue)Hyslop, Dean2021-06-302021-06-302225-1146http://hdl.handle.net/1885/238455This paper compares two approaches to analyzing longitudinal discrete-time binary outcomes. Dynamic binary response models focus on state occupancy and typically specify low-order Markovian state dependence. Multi-spell duration models focus on transitions between states and typically allow for state-specific duration dependence. We show that the former implicitly impose strong and testable restrictions on the transition probabilities. In a case study of poverty transitions, we show that these restrictions are severely rejected against the more flexible multi-spell duration models.T.G.’s research was supported in part by Australian Research Council Grant DP1096862. D.R.H.’s research was supported in part by the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund Grant MEP1301.© 2018 by the authorshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/panel datatransition databinary responseduration analysisevent history analysisdynamic modelscensored datainitial conditionsrandom effects2018-12-2410.3390/econometrics7010001Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license