Barry, ChristianCullity, Garrett2025-12-182025-12-182155-0085ORCID:/0000-0002-2800-7904/work/164716727ORCID:/0000-0003-4847-4304/work/164717636WOS:001132076600001https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733796619There is a difference between acting with a probability of making a difference to who is harmed, and worsening someone’s prospect. This difference is relevant to debates about the ethics of offsetting, since it means that showing that emitting-and-offsetting has the first feature is not a way of showing that it has the second feature. In an earlier paper, we illustrate this difference with an example of a lottery in which you shake the bag from which a ball will be drawn to determine the identity of the person who will suffer a harm. Here, we reply to Stefansson and Willners’ criticism of that example, explaining how their reply makes a mistake about the point of the example.This work was supported by the Australian Research Council [DP180100355].6enPublisher Copyright: © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.HarmOffsettingProspectsRisk202310.1080/21550085.2023.229733910.1080/21550085.2023.229733910500194206285180898240