Vilar, LaraHerrera, SixtoTafur-Garcia, E.Yebra, MartaMartinez-Vega, J.Echavarria, P.Martin, P.2023-07-061364-8152http://hdl.handle.net/1885/294000Wildfire occurrence is expected to increase in future climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change scenarios, especially in vulnerable areas as the European Mediterranean Basin. In this study future probability of wildfire occurrence was estimated for a 20-year time period (2041–2060, centered on 2050) by applying a statistically-based regression model using LULC-derived contact areas with the forest cover (interfaces) as proxy for the human-related factor and a combination of Live Fuel Moisture Content and seasonal climate-related variables as predictors. Future wildfire occurrence was mapped under RCP 8.5 high emissions scenario in four Spanish regions with heterogeneous socioeconomic, LULC and natural fire-related characteristics at 1 km2 target spatial resolution. Results showed increased wildfire probability in ∼19–73% of 1 km2 cells, observing regional differences in the variable effects. This approach could be applied to other spatial scales offering tools for planning and management actions and to obtain different possible future scenarios.This paper was funded by the LUC4FIRE project (CSO2015-73407-JIN), supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Finance (MINECO) and the Environmental Remote Sensing and Spectroscopy Laboratory (Speclab) at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC). E.T-G was supported by the 2017 Youth Guarantee initiative from Madrid region (contract number CAMPD17_IEGD_001).application/pdfen-AU© 2021 Elsevier Ltd.Land use land cover interfacesClimate change initiative-land coverLFMCCoupled model intercomparison project 5CMIP5Business-as-usual scenarioWildland urban interface202110.1016/j.envsoft.2021.1052002022-04-24