Danso, Derrick K.Quagraine, Kwesi T.Akintomide, Akinsanola A.Amekudzi, Leonard K.Adeyeri, Oluwafemi E.2025-12-172025-12-17ORCID:/0000-0002-9735-0677/work/189379577https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733795936This study projects near-future (2031-2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.We appreciate the World Climate Research Programme\u2019s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for the CMIP6 models. The authors acknowledge the climate modeling groups listed in table 1 for producing and making their HighResMIP model outputs available, and the Earth System Grid Federation for archiving and providing access to these outputs. We are also grateful to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for producing and making available the ERA5 dataset. Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri is supported by Australian Research Council Grant No. CE230100012. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped improve the manuscript. We appreciate the World Climate Research Programme\u2019s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for the CMIP6 models. The authors acknowledge the climate modeling groups listed in table for producing and making their HighResMIP model outputs available, and the Earth System Grid Federation for archiving and providing access to these outputs. We are also grateful to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for producing and making available the ERA5 dataset. Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri is supported by Australian Research Council Grant No. CE230100012. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped improve the manuscript.18en© 2025 The Author(s).climate changefuture projectionsglobal warmingheatwavesHighResMIPWest Africa202510.1088/2752-5295/add31f105005789410