Barnes, BelindaScott, Angela BullandayHernandez-Jover, MartaToribio, Jenny-AnnMoloney, BarbaraGlass, Kathryn2021-11-170040-5809http://hdl.handle.net/1885/251857Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are devastating to poultry industries and pose a risk to human health. There is concern that demand for free-range poultry products could increase the number of HPAI outbreaks by increasing the potential for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) introduction to commercial flocks.This project was supported financially by the Poultry CRC, Australia. We also thank the journal editor and reviewers for their insights and suggestions.application/pdfen-AUCrown Copyright © 2019 Published by Elsevier IncAvian influenzaCommercial poultryBranching processStochastic modelsPopulation structureVirus mutation201810.1016/j.tpb.2019.02.0042020-11-23