Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting

Steele, KatieWerndl, Charlotte2021-11-172021-11-171464-3537http://hdl.handle.net/1885/251860This article argues that common intuitions regarding a) the specialness of 'use-novel' data for conformation and b) that this specialness implies the 'no-double-counting rule', which says that data used in 'constructing' (calibrating) a model cannot also play a role in confirming the model's predictions, are too crude.Funding support for the research was provided by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AH/J006033/1) and by the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/K006576/1 to Charlotte Werndl). Katie Steele was also supported by a three-month Research Fellowship in residence at the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Studyapplication/pdfen-AU© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for the Philosophy of Science.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting201810.1093/bjps/axw0242020-11-23Creative Commons Attribution License