Brailsford, Timothy JohnO'Neill, TerencePenm, Jack HW2015-12-071740-8849http://hdl.handle.net/1885/19330In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including full-order models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exact-windowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.Keywords: Causality detection; Evolutionary algorithms200610.1504/IJSS.2006.0104702015-12-07