Biastoch, ArneDurgadoo, Jonathan V.Morrison, Adele K.Van Sebille, ErikWeijer, WilbertGriffies, Stephen M.2025-12-182025-12-182041-1723ORCID:/0000-0002-9904-4980/work/163624929https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733796627The interoceanic transfer of seawater between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, 'Agulhas leakage', forms a choke point for the overturning circulation in the global ocean. Here, by combining output from a series of high-resolution ocean and climate models with in situ and satellite observations, we construct a time series of Agulhas leakage for the period 1870-2014. The time series demonstrates the impact of Southern Hemisphere westerlies on decadal timescales. Agulhas leakage shows a correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on multi-decadal timescales; the former leading by 15 years. This is relevant for climate in the North Atlantic.The model data required for this analysis and in-depth information on the simulations will be provided on request. This work received funding from German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) framework project SPACES (03G0835A). E.v.S. was supported by the Australian Research Council via grant DE130101336. A.K.M. was supported by the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-SC0012457. W.W. was supported by DOE Office of Science’s RGCM program. We acknowledge the availability of HadISST, OISST, ERSST and AVISO data. We thank Mike Winton for providing useful comments.en2015-12-1010.1038/ncomms1008284949655295