Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model

Abel, Guy J.Bijak, JakubForster, Jonathon J.Raymer, JamesSmith, Peter W. F.Wong, Jackie S. T.2015-12-101435-9871http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62380Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series modelsAuthor/s retain copyrightIntegrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model201310.4054/DemRes.2013.29.43.2015-12-10