McKibbin, WarwickVines, David2026-01-132026-01-130266-903Xhttps://hdl.handle.net/1885/733804199This paper provides quantitative modelling of the effect of three longer-term global transitions: the global demographic transition involving a marked reduction in population growth; a long-term slowdown in productivity growth which may continue, or may conceivably be reversed; and the disruption in the global economy due to increasing climate shocks and the implementation of climate policies that will be needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. We study the global investment needs to which these transitions will lead. We demonstrate that these investment needs will be both asymmetric across countries and over time. This asymmetry will lead to potentially large changes in trade flows and significant financial capital flows across national borders, and also to substantial real exchange changes and interest rate movements. The resulting large movements in international capital flows will have significant implications for the global financial system, which we demonstrate at the country and regional level.We acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Grant CE170100005 for the Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research.application/pdfen-AU© 2023 The Author(s)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/202310.1093/oxrep/grad0042023-10-22Creative Commons Attribution License