Wisniowski, AskadiuszBijak, JakubShang, Hanlin2015-12-071544-8452http://hdl.handle.net/1885/19879Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thusKeywords: Bayesian analysis; constitutional reform; emigration; immigration; independence; internal migration; international migration; time series analysis; uncertainty analysis; Scotland; United Kingdom Bayesian modelling; Constitutional referendum; Migration; Scotland; Time series; Uncertainty201410.1002/psp.18562019-08-18