Ranjan, MaathumaiBreunig, Robert2026-01-152026-01-150167-6296PubMed:41447754ORCID:/0000-0002-2220-3410/work/202252244WOS:001653760300001https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733804278This paper examines the impact of individualized funding for disability supports on autism diagnoses. We identify these effects using the staggered roll out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), which provides individualized funding for non-medical disability interventions. We find compelling evidence that the introduction of the NDIS has led to a 32 % increase in reported autism prevalence and accounts for 47 % of new diagnoses since the introduction of the scheme. We find a significant reduction in diagnoses from government subsided healthcare professionals, accompanied by an increase in diagnoses from disability service providers. A lower threshold for autism recognition appears more consistent with our results than catch-up in historically underdiagnosed groups.The authors thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) for providing access to the data required for this analysis. We thank our colleagues and seminar participants at the Australian National University and the Australasian Workshop on Econometrics and Health Economics for useful suggestions to the paper. The proposal for this research was approved by the Australian National University Human Research Ethics Committee, protocol number 2023/258. All findings, opinions and conclusions are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Australian government or any of its agencies. Funding and Declaration of Competing Interests Maathumai Ranjan is undertaking a PhD with support from the Sir Roland Wilson PhD Scholarship. This research was conducted independently. Neither author received any funding for this research. Neither author has any conflicts of interest to declare.30en© 2025 The Author(s).ASDAutismAutism spectrum disorderDiagnosesDisabilityGovernment supportsNational disability insurance schemeNDISNeurodiversityPrevalence2025-12-2010.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.10310010.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103100105025704099