A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination

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dc.contributor.authorLydeamore, M.J.
dc.contributor.authorCampbell, Patricia T.
dc.contributor.authorRegan, David G
dc.contributor.authorTong, Steven Y C
dc.contributor.authorAndrews, Ross
dc.contributor.authorSteer, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorRomani, Lucia
dc.contributor.authorKaldor, John M
dc.contributor.authorMcVernon, Jodie
dc.contributor.authorMcCaw, James
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-14T00:28:15Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.date.updated2019-05-05T09:18:50Z
dc.description.abstractInfections with Sarcoptes scabiei, or scabies, remain common in many disadvantaged populations. Mass drug administration (MDA) has been used in such settings to achieve a rapid reduction in infection and transmission, with the goal of eliminating the public health burden of scabies. While prevalence has been observed to fall substantially following such an intervention, in some instances resurgence of infection to baseline levels has occurred over several years. To explore the biology underpinning this phenomenon, we have developed a theoretical model of scabies life-cycle and transmission dynamics in a homogeneously mixing population, and simulate the impact of mass drug treatment strategies acting on egg and mite life cycle stages (ovicidal) or mites alone (non-ovicidal). In order to investigate the dynamics of the system, we first define and calculate the optimal interval between treatment doses. We calculate the probability of eradication as a function of the number of optimally-timed successive treatment doses and the number of years over which a program is run. For the non-ovicidal intervention, we first show that at least two optimally-timed doses are required to achieve eradication. We then demonstrate that while more doses over a small number of years provides the highest chance of eradication, a similar outcome can be achieved with fewer doses delivered annually over a longer period of time. For the ovicidal intervention, we find that doses should be delivered as close together as possible. This work provides a platform for further research into optimal treatment strategies which may incorporate heterogeneity of transmission, and the interplay between MDA and enhancement of continuing scabies surveillance and treatment strategies.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.issn0025-5564en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/186103
dc.language.isoen_AUen_AU
dc.publisherElsevieren_AU
dc.rights© 2018 Elsevier Inc.en_AU
dc.sourceMathematical Biosciencesen_AU
dc.titleA biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of eliminationen_AU
dc.typeJournal articleen_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage173en_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage163en_AU
local.contributor.affiliationLydeamore, M.J., School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourneen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationCampbell, Patricia T., Doherty Epidemiology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity,en_AU
local.contributor.affiliationRegan, David G, University of New South Walesen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationTong, Steven Y C, Charles Darwin Universityen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationAndrews, Ross, College of Health and Medicine, ANUen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationSteer, Andrew, Murdoch Children’s Research Instituteen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationRomani, Lucia, University of New South Walesen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationKaldor, John M, University of New South Walesen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationMcVernon, Jodie, University of Melbourneen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationMcCaw, James, University of Melbourneen_AU
local.contributor.authoremailrepository.admin@anu.edu.auen_AU
local.contributor.authoruidAndrews, Ross, u3882913en_AU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.absfor110309 - Infectious Diseasesen_AU
local.identifier.absseo920203 - Diagnostic Methodsen_AU
local.identifier.ariespublicationu3102795xPUB874en_AU
local.identifier.citationvolume309en_AU
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.mbs.2018.08.007en_AU
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-85056875095
local.identifier.uidSubmittedByu3102795en_AU
local.publisher.urlhttps://www.elsevier.com/en-auen_AU
local.type.statusPublished Versionen_AU

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