The macro-effects of population growth on economic development in China since 1949

Abstract

This thesis attempts a preliminary estimate of the influence of population growth on macro-economic growth as well as on economic development in China since 1949. In the first chapter, it is proposed that three variables, the socio-economic systems, population dynamics and economic development, are inextricably interwoven in Chinese society. Therefore, when studying the impacts of population growth on economic development in China since 1949, the influence of socio-economic systems must be considered. Chapter Two and Chapter Three review histories of population and economy in the People's Republic of China since 1949. The two chapters also historically examine the feedback interplay between population growth and economic development in China. In Chapter Four, the impacts of population growth as well as the impacts of increases in the labour force on macro-economic growth in China since 1949 are examined. It is estimated that increments in labour force contributed about 40 per cent of the increase of GDP in China from 1953 to 1985. The statistical analysis in this chapter shows that there are no significant correlations between population growth and macro-economic growth. The influence of population growth on economic development in China since 1949 is examined and national welfare also defined in Chapter Four. Based on the function of increase of national welfare, it is found population growth in China since 1949 has had a strong adverse impact on the improvement of Chinese well-being. Finally the macro-costs of population growth in China since 1952 are estimated. In summary, although China's population growth shows complex interplay mechanisms with the economy, it can be concluded that population growth does have negative impacts on economic development.