Economic Change and Public Support for Democracy in China and Russia

Abstract

There has been an extensive debate about the relationship between economic development and democratisation. One view is that economic development is a pre-requisite for democracy. Another view is that the emergence of democracy is largely random, and economic prosperity is important only for ensuring democracy’s survival in the event of a crisis. This essay contributes to this debate by using public opinion surveys collected over an extended period to examine patterns of economic change and public support for democracy in China and Russia. The results show that education and, to a lesser extent, social mobility and economic attitudes, play an important role in promoting pro-democracy attitudes in both countries. The results have implications for democratisation, with an increasingly large tertiary-educated middle class acting as a potential driver for democratisation in China, and for the return of a free, fair and competitive democracy in Russia.