Population projections for Burma 1983-2013

Abstract

Most countries in the world endeavour to develop their society and economy by means of short and long-term plans. In attempting to do this, information on the current and future size of the population and its age-sex distribution play an important role. Population projections are thus essential tools for development planning. In this study, an attempt has been made to project the population size and age-sex structure of Burma for a thirty year period from 1983 to 2013. The information provided by the 1983 census is used as basic data even though it has some limitations. To describe the rough demographic trends of the country, the data from annual vital statistics reports are also utilized. There are six chapters in this study. In Chapter I, the geographic and demographic backgrounds, of Burma are viewed. Chapter II is an analysis of the 1983 census age-sex distribution by means of sex ratios and age accuracy indices. Adjusted and smoothed age-sex data are obtained by three methods. In Chapter III, the three components of population growth: mortality; fertility and migration are examined. It is found that Burma's mortality and fertility have declined over time. A high level of literacy, an increase in the singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) and decrease in the proportion of married led to fertility decline. International migration is not significant in Burma. In Chapter IV, population projections are made using 3 mortality and 4 fertility assumptions. In Chapter V, the implications of the projected population are assessed. The effect of rapid population growth on the socio-economic sectors: agriculture; education; health and employment are evaluated. This study concludes that the higher the fertility, the greater the problems for socio-economic development in the country. Fertility control is desirable to prevent further economic deterioration in Burma. Show more