The Future of Organic Agriculture: Otopia or Oblivion?

Abstract

Organic agriculture could feed the world, but will it? A state of Otopia, an organic Utopia of 100% organic food and organic agriculture, is a dream, or is it a pipe-dream? The stated goal of the organic movement is the adoption worldwide of organic agriculture. That task has a long path to travel, with organic agriculture currently accounting for 0.8% of agricultural land worldwide. Two roads to Otopia are extrapolated from the current state of the growth of global organics. If an arithmetic rate of growth were to continue indefinitely then what Liechtenstein has already achieved, namely a 30% organic share, would take 160 years to achieve worldwide, and a state of Otopia would take 544 years (2553). If the rate of growth exhibited over the past decade continues under a geometric growth scenario - think compound interest - then Otopia would be reached in 39 years (2048). Show more