Baseline factors predictive of serious suicidality at follow-up: findings focussing on age and gender from a community-based study

Abstract

BACKGROUND Although often providing more reliable and informative findings relative to other study designs, longitudinal investigations of prevalence and predictors of suicidal behaviour remain uncommon. This paper compares 12-month prevalence rates for suicidal ideation and suicide attempt at baseline and follow-up; identifies new cases and remissions; and assesses the capacity of baseline data to predict serious suicidality at follow-up, focusing on age and gender differences. METHODS 6,666 participants aged 20-29, 40-49 and 60-69 years were drawn from the first (1999-2001) and second (2003-2006) waves of a general population survey. Analyses involved multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS At follow-up, prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempt had decreased (8.2%-6.1%, and 0.8%-0.5%, respectively). However, over one quarter of those reporting serious suicidality at baseline still experienced it four years later. Females aged 20-29 never married or diagnosed with a physical illness at follow-up were at greater risk of serious suicidality (OR = 4.17, 95% CI = 3.11-5.23; OR = 3.18, 95% CI = 2.09-4.26, respectively). Males aged 40-49 not in the labour force had increased odds of serious suicidality (OR = 4.08, 95% CI = 1.6-6.48) compared to their equivalently-aged and employed counterparts. Depressed/anxious females aged 60-69 were nearly 30% more likely to be seriously suicidal. CONCLUSIONS There are age and gender differentials in the risk factors for suicidality. Life-circumstances contribute substantially to the onset of serious suicidality, in addition to symptoms of depression and anxiety. These findings are particularly pertinent to the development of effective population-based suicide prevention strategies.