Changes in Australian mothers’ labour force participation between 1991 and 2015

Abstract

This paper examines the last 25 years of Australian mothers’ labour for participation, with particular focus on the unusual mid-2000s period where the gap between partnered and lone mothers’ employment rates almost halved. Following Gray et al. (2003), multinomial logit models of the determinants of lone and partnered mothers’ labour force status are estimated in 1998-99 and 2009-10. The changes between 1998 99 and 2009-10 are then decomposed using an extension of the Oaxaca method. The results indicate that most of the changes in the predicted labour force probabilities between 1998-99 and 2009-10 are due to changes in the estimated coefficients rather than the average characteristics of lone and partnered mothers. While the reasons for the changes in the estimated coefficient cannot be directly identified, this study suggests that strong economic conditions during the period increased lone mothers’ incentives and opportunities to work. Show more