Himawari-8 enabled real-time distributed PVsimulations for distribution networks

Abstract

High resolution, next generation satellites such as Himawari-8 show great promise for the provision of accurate estimations of Behind-the-Meter (BtM) solar PV power production. This paper presents a methodology that produces real-time PV power estimates as derived from Himawari-8 satellite imagery, validating them against seven Australian radiation monitoring sites and 78 small-scale BtM solar PV sites in Canberra, Australia. We report an MBE of -7 W m-2 and RMSE of 55 W m-2 for global horizontal radiation values (Gh) and an MBE of 0.04 W/Wp and RMSE of 0.15 W/Wp for estimated actuals at the PV sites. As a capstone, we apply this satellite based radiation modeling tool to a distribution network level distributed PV simulation in a single case-study using 15,500 PV sites. This work was completed in collaboration with industry partner, Solcast. Show more