Security Dilemmas of a Small State: Cambodia's Foreign Policy towards China

Abstract

This author of research argues that Cambodia's relations with China have been driven by three deterministic factors: (1) the revival of perceived security threats from its bigger and historically antagonistic neighbours, Thailand and Vietnam; (2) Phnom Penh's anticipation of a future Sino-centric regional order in Asia; and (3) China's increasingly important political and economic roles in the Kingdom. These three factors are crucial not only for the security and prosperity of Cambodia but also for the survival of the Hun Sen regime.

Moreover, Cambodia's strategic options are limited. ASEAN was once the cornerstone of Cambodia's foreign policy. Recently, however, Phnom Penh's confidence in ASEAN has gradually diminished due to the perception among Cambodian foreign policymakers that ASEAN has not been effective enough to help Cambodia address its security challenges, particularly during the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute from 2008 to 2011. As far as Cambodia's alignment with the great powers is concerned, options are also limited. Among the US, Russia, France and Japan, Cambodian policymakers consider only Japan to be an important strategic partner in Cambodia's foreign policy diversification. Having said that, Phnom Penh's alignments with China and Japan have different values in favour of the former due to the perception that Tokyo's military and strategic role in the region is limited.

Cambodia's strategic direction towards China can be categorized as an increasingly tight alignment. Cambodia might experience risks and vulnerabilities from such a relationship. There has been growing public resentment over China's political and economic clout in Cambodia. Within the public debate, many point out that there are correlations between China's growing influence in Cambodia and the regression of democracy, depletion of natural resources and the erosion of foreign policy autonomy in the Kingdom. There is also increasing concern that Cambodia might face a possible abandonment or entrapment in the great powers' conflicts. Worse still, Phnom Penh's increasingly tight alignment with Beijing has alienated other powers and Cambodia's neighbouring countries, which might invite them to interfere into the Kingdom's domestic affairs in order to protect and promote their interests. Therefore, the author of this research claims that it is too risky for Cambodia to have a tight alignment with China and that Cambodia should restrain its close relations with China in the form of a 'loose alignment'.