Managing the Security Dilemma in East Asia: The Potential and Performance of Confidence Building Measures

Abstract

After the end of the Cold War, many states in East Asia embarked on robust military build-up and defence modernisation programs. In light of this development, one of the main security concerns in the region stemmed from the fact that such weapons acquisition programs were conducted with a relative lack of transparency with respect to regional states’ objectives and motivations. In an effort to prevent the military build-up/modernisation programs from escalating into a regional arms race, East Asian countries began implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) mainly through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). This paper assesses the performance of the CBMs that have been implemented in the region and examines their potential in preventing arms races. The paper finds that most measures implemented in East Asia are transparency measures which do not require strong political commitment, while the implementation of constraint measures remains minimal. The region, thus, has not reached a point where it is sufficient to prevent arms races. One of the important reasons for this insufficient level of cooperation stems from the lack of the acceptance of the status quo. Without the acceptance of the status quo or an agreement that the status quo is changed only through peaceful means, CBMs and arms control arrangements will be of nominal value in East Asia. Show more