How will increased atmospheric CO2 and climate change-induced wind trends alter the probability of tree failures from wind gusts

Abstract

Trees provide numerous benefits to communities, but pose a risk when they are damaged. The likelihood that trees will be damaged in a windstorm is increasing due to climate change, as wind trends are changing as the climate warms, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations could alter the resistance of trees to wind damage.To address these concerns, we created a tree damage model that integrates results from a meta-analysis about the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on tree growth and an analysis of the return period of damaging winds in Toronto, Canada from 1990 to 2080. This joint analysis is applied for a simulated silver birch (Betula pendula) tree. Our model predicts that by 2080, due both to a high CO2-induced decrease in tree resilience and an increased likelihood of more frequent and intense windstorms, damaging windstorms will occur about twice as frequently as they do today.