Expert perspectives on achieving global sustainability with targeted transformational change

Abstract

To address the increasingly acute global environmental and social problems, transformational change is required to the prevailing socioeconomic systems. Some interpret this to mean that economic growth must become "green", while others question if "post-growth" approaches are needed instead. In this dissertation, I examine what future pathways sustainability scholars think different country income groups should follow for global sustainability to be achieved. To evaluate expert perspectives, I organized a global expert survey (n=461) and used statistical modelling to help explain the scholars' views. After the survey, I focused on transformational change in the context of a specific high-income country, Finland, by organising a Delphi-workshop with Finnish sustainability and post-growth experts (n=14), applying a backcasting method. The thesis findings imply support for targeted transformational change. Most sustainability scholars were in favour of post-growth pathways for high- and upper-middle-income countries while green growth was favoured for low- and lower-middle-income countries. As support for post-growth increased from the 2020s to 2030s, support for green growth decreased in all contexts. I found substantial variation in the scholars' opinions regarding the future of economic growth. The expert workshop corroborated the survey results and produced a new vision of a post-growth Finland, evaluating obstacles to change and potential actions that could facilitate the needed transformation. The panel recognised Finland's structural dependence on economic growth as a key issue. This "societal addiction" to growth is obstructing rich countries from following the post-growth pathways preferred by sustainability scholars. My results demonstrate that there now exists a high demand for post-growth solutions. Scholars should respond to this demand by focusing more on detailing post-growth solutions and less on criticizing the status-quo. Particularly in high-income countries, the main focus of scholars and decision makers alike should now turn towards overcoming the prevailing societal growth addictions. I conclude that while the societal dependence on nature cannot be overcome, the dependence on growth can be. This could help societies achieve important environmental goals and sustainable wellbeing, in time. Show more