Effects of marital fertility and nuptiality on fertility transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1976-1996

Abstract

International stereotypes tend to portray Iran as a ‘traditional’ society resistant to many aspects of social change. Based on this assumption, the generally held view is that Iran is experiencing one of the highest fertility rates in the world, and that demographic transition has not started yet. Recent statistics has proved, however, that the reality is profoundly different. Iran has experienced an astonishing fertility decline in recent years. This study aims to review the trends and changes in fertility over the period 1976 to 1996. The Islamic Republic of Iran experienced a moderate increase in fertility during 1976-1986, mainly due to the relaxation of family planning programs by the government. On the other hand, fertility began to decline in 1984, and has sharply declined since 1988. The question has arisen to what extent this significant change has been due to the changes in nuptiality and marital fertility. The own-children data from the 1986 and 1996 censuses allow us to analyse the change in fertility in the last two decades, and to decompose the change in fertility into two main components of nuptiality and marital fertility. The result has shown that around 85 percent of the changes is due to marital fertility, which suggests that most of the fertility of Iranian women has been controlled within marriage. Around 15 percent of the change is attributable to changes in nuptiality, specifically an increase in age at marriage and thus a reduction in the proportion of women married at early ages. After reviewing the literature on the demographic transition in Iran, the paper will first analyse the changes in nuptiality patterns during the last two decades. Second, the changes in fertility trends and levels will briefly be discussed for the period 1976 to 1996. Then the change of fertility will be decomposed into the two components of nuptiality and marital fertility. Tentative explanations for the dramatic decline in marital fertility will be put forward; and the future prospects of the fertility decline, policy implications and issues for further studies will be discussed. Show more