Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Abstract

Slack OECD economic performance and weaker macroeconomic policy support Summers's reuse of the phrase ‘secular stagnation’. Globalisation has redirected growth towards emerging economies, and anticipated rates of return on investment are impaired by perceived risk, institutionalised risk aversion, ageing and dependency, declining commitments to public investment and research and development with rising shares directed to health, retained trade distortions, industrial concentration and slower human capital accumulation, not to mention unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred. Show more