Working life expectancies: the case of Finland 1980-2006

Date

2005

Authors

Nurminen, Markku M
Heathcote, Christopher R.
Davis, B.
Puza, Borek

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Aiden Press

Abstract

Working life expectancy is the future time that a person is expected to spend in employment. The paper is concerned with its estimation jointly with the expected times spent in the related states of 'on disability pension' and 'other alive'. The method, which is novel in this field, first estimates year- and age-dependent probabilities of being in the states of interest by large sample multivariate logistic regression. Estimates of probabilities, and subsequently expectancies, are given for the case of Finnish women and men aged 16-64 years for selected years in the period 1980-2001, together with projections for 2006. Since 1996 the decline in the employment of males has largely been due to the increasing popularity of early retirement. It was not due to an increase in disability. There has been no such decline for women, and the working life expectancy for males has been predicted to decline to or to fall below the initially lower figure for females by 2006. Considering that the Finnish population is aging rapidly, these trends could entail serious social and economic consequences for society in the coming years because of a looming shortage in the labour force that could undermine the sustainability of a welfare state.

Description

Keywords

Keywords: Disability; Employment; Expectancy; Logistic regression; Working life

Citation

Source

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B

Type

Journal article

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

License Rights

DOI

10.1111/j.1467-985X.2005.00364.x

Restricted until

2037-12-31