Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013

Date

2013

Authors

Lewis (previously Bretherton), Sophie
Karoly, David J

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

American Geophysical Union

Abstract

Anthropogenic contributions to the record hot 2013 Australian summer are investigated using a suite of climate model experiments. This was the hottest Australian summer in the observational record. Australian area-average summer temperatures for simulations with natural forcings only were compared to simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcings for the period 1976-2005 and the RCP8.5 high emission simulation (2006-2020) from nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. Using fraction of attributable risk to compare the likelihood of extreme Australian summer temperatures between the experiments, it was very likely (>90% confidence) there was at least a 2.5 times increase in the odds of extreme heat due to human influences using simulations to 2005, and a fivefold increase in this risk using simulations for 2006-2020. The human contribution to the increased odds of Australian summer extremes like 2013 was substantial, while natural climate variations alone, including El Niño Southern Oscillation, are unlikely to explain the record temperature. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description

Keywords

Keywords: attribution; Australia; ENSO; extremes; summer; Atmospheric pressure; Experiments; Computer simulation; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; numerical model; risk factor; temperature effect; Australia attribution; Australia; ENSO; extremes; summer

Citation

Source

Geophysical Research Letters

Type

Journal article

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

Open Access

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