Predictors of future stroke in adults 60-64 years living in the community

Cherbuin, N; Carey, Leeanne; Mortby, Moyra; Anstey, Kaarin

Predictors of future stroke in adults 60-64 years living in the community

Date

2016-03-28

Authors

Cherbuin, N

Carey, Leeanne

Mortby, Moyra

Anstey, Kaarin

Publisher

Baishideng Publishing

Abstract

AIM: To investigate predictors of incident stroke in a large epidemiological sample of cognitively healthy individuals in their early 60’s. METHODS: Cardiovascular (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, hypertension status and medication, body mass index, lung forced vital capacity), lifestyle (alcohol intake, smoking, physical activity), mental health (anxiety and depression status, medication and symptomatology), cognition (executive function, processing speed, working memory, sensorimotor skills), and personality measures (behavioural inhibition and activation, positive and negative affect, neuroticism, psychoticism, extraversion) were investigated as predictors of incident stroke in 1774 participants from the Personality and Total Health Through Life Project over an 8-year follow-up. Logistic regression analyses controlled for age, gender, and education were conducted in the whole cohort as well as in case-control sub-analyses including precisely matched controls to identify factors associated with stroke incidence. RESULTS: The cohort selected had a mean age of 62.5 years (SD = 1.5) and was 48.6% female with an average of 14.1 years of education (SD = 2.6). When 28 individuals with incident stroke were compared to 1746 cognitively healthy individuals in multivariate logistic regression analyses the only significant predictors of stroke across the five domains considered (cardiovascular, lifestyle, mental health, cognition, personality) and after controlling for gender, age, and education were systolic blood pressure (per unit above 140 mmHg: OR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.01-1.07, P = 0.002), smoking (trend OR = 2.28, 95%CI: 0.99-5.24, P = 0.052), and sensorimotor skills (purdue pegboard: OR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.62-0.96, P = 0.037). Similarly, in matched-control analyses significant group differences were found for systolic blood pressure (P = 0.001), smoking (P = 0.036), and sensorimotor skills (P = 0.028). CONCLUSION: Identified predictors of incident stroke in community-living individuals included high systolic blood pressure and smoking - but also, sensorimotor performance, a measure which has not yet been reported in the literature.