National and subnational projections of elderly living arrangements: an application of the net transition probability macrosimulation model

Abstract

Recently, McDonald et al. (2006) outlined a new method of projecting living arrangements, households and dwellings at the national and subnational level, using quinquennial census data. The purpose of this paper is to apply this new simulation method to project the composition of elderly living arrangements at the national and subnational level in Australia over the period 2001 to 2016. This study presents projections of living arrangements for Temporal Statistical Districts within New South Wales and for Australia as a whole. Results show a strong increase in the number of the elderly living alone, particularly elderly males. The rate of growth in lone-person households is particularly strong in coastal and regional New South Wales, underlining the importance of capturing subnational differences in probabilities of births, deaths, migration and household movements when producing regional projections of living arrangements. This paper concludes by considering implications of the findings and potential uses of the net transition probability method.