Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China
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Clements, Archie C A; Barnett, Adrian G; Cheng, Zhang; Snow, Robert W; Zhou, Hom
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BACKGROUND Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. METHODS Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Clements, Archie C A | |
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dc.contributor.author | Barnett, Adrian G | |
dc.contributor.author | Cheng, Zhang | |
dc.contributor.author | Snow, Robert W | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhou, Hom | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-01-11T23:35:30Z | |
dc.date.available | 2016-01-11T23:35:30Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1475-2875 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/95316 | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. METHODS Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June-September and the preceding January-February. RESULTS Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June-September and the preceding January-February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. CONCLUSION Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January-February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January-February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province. | |
dc.description.sponsorship | This project was supported by a University of Queensland New Research Scientist Start-Up Fund grant. RWS is a Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellow (#079080) and receives additional support from the Wellcome Trust for the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP, http://www.map.ox.ac.uk). | |
dc.publisher | BioMed Central | |
dc.rights | © 2009 Clements et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | |
dc.source | Malaria Journal | |
dc.subject | animals | |
dc.subject | china | |
dc.subject | geography | |
dc.subject | humans | |
dc.subject | incidence | |
dc.subject | malaria, falciparum | |
dc.subject | malaria, vivax | |
dc.subject | rain | |
dc.subject | seasons | |
dc.subject | time factors | |
dc.subject | weather | |
dc.title | Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 8 | |
dc.date.issued | 2009-07-31 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 111706 | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | U3488905xPUB4136 | |
local.publisher.url | http://www.biomedcentral.com/ | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Clements, Archie, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, CMBE Research School of Population Health, Natl Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, The Australian National University | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Barnett, Adrian, Queensland University of Technology, Australia | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Cheng, Zhang Wei, Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases, China | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Snow, Robert W, University of Oxford, Kenya | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Zhou, Hom Ning, Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases, China | |
local.identifier.essn | 1475-2875 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 1 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 180 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 12 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 920404 | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T10:05:51Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-69049100079 | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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01_Clements_Space-time_variation_of_2009.pdf | Published Version | 2.84 MB | Adobe PDF |
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