Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China
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Wardrop, Nicola A; Barnett, Adrian G; Atkinson, Jo-An; Clements, Archie CA
Description
BACKGROUND Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Wardrop, Nicola A | |
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dc.contributor.author | Barnett, Adrian G | |
dc.contributor.author | Atkinson, Jo-An | |
dc.contributor.author | Clements, Archie CA | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-01-05T01:01:47Z | |
dc.date.available | 2016-01-05T01:01:47Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1475-2875 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/95221 | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. METHODS Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991-2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. RESULTS There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. CONCLUSIONS The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers. | |
dc.description.sponsorship | This study was supported by the Medical Research Council (NAW – project MR/J012343/1). | |
dc.publisher | BioMed Central | |
dc.rights | © 2013 Wardrop et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | |
dc.source | Malaria Journal | |
dc.subject | china | |
dc.subject | humans | |
dc.subject | incidence | |
dc.subject | malaria, vivax | |
dc.subject | poisson distribution | |
dc.subject | rain | |
dc.subject | seasons | |
dc.subject | temperature | |
dc.title | Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 12 | |
dc.date.issued | 2013-12-18 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 111706 | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | u5427758xPUB100 | |
local.publisher.url | http://www.biomedcentral.com/ | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Wardrop, Nicola A, University of Southampton, United Kingdom | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Barnett, Adrian, Queensland University of Technology, Australia | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Atkinson, Jo-An, University of Queensland, Australia | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Clements, Archie, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, CMBE Research School of Population Health, Natl Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, The Australian National University | |
local.identifier.essn | 1475-2875 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 1 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 452 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 11 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1186/1475-2875-12-452 | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T11:36:30Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-84890407918 | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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01_Wardrop_Plasmodium_vivax_malaria_2013.pdf | Published Version | 3.55 MB | Adobe PDF |
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