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Historical Population Estimates: Unraveling the Consensus

Caldwell, John; Schindlmayr, Thomas

Description

The mid-twentieth century witnessed the emergence of a remarkable consensus on quantitative estimates of world population growth after 1650. This was the achievement of Walter Willcox, supported and modified by Alexander Carr-Saunders and John Durand, and was endorsed by United Nations publications. It had its origin in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century work, largely carried out in Germany. Willcox was particularly interested in demonstrating seventeenth-century population growth as evidence...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorCaldwell, John
dc.contributor.authorSchindlmayr, Thomas
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-13T23:17:24Z
dc.date.available2015-12-13T23:17:24Z
dc.identifier.issn0098-7921
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/89699
dc.description.abstractThe mid-twentieth century witnessed the emergence of a remarkable consensus on quantitative estimates of world population growth after 1650. This was the achievement of Walter Willcox, supported and modified by Alexander Carr-Saunders and John Durand, and was endorsed by United Nations publications. It had its origin in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century work, largely carried out in Germany. Willcox was particularly interested in demonstrating seventeenth-century population growth as evidence of the global impact of European expansion, and this probably led to a too-ready acceptance of estimates with little real basis. More recent estimates do little to shake the consensus, but extend the historical series back over two millennia or further. The article examines the strength and influence of a consensus based in the earlier period on surprisingly insecure data. It then turns to the most suspect element in the consensus, the pre-twentieth-century estimates for Africa. Finally, little hope is expressed that future researchers will be able to establish reliable estimates, especially for dates earlier than the eighteenth century.
dc.publisherPopulation Council
dc.sourcePopulation and Development Review
dc.subjectKeywords: demographic history; estimation method; population estimation; population growth; Europe
dc.titleHistorical Population Estimates: Unraveling the Consensus
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.description.refereedYes
local.identifier.citationvolume28
dc.date.issued2002
local.identifier.absfor160305 - Population Trends and Policies
local.identifier.ariespublicationMigratedxPub19806
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationCaldwell, John, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationSchindlmayr, Thomas, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.bibliographicCitation.issue2
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage183
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage204
dc.date.updated2015-12-12T08:52:46Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-0036617336
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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