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Sensitivity analysis of predicted change in soil carbon following afforestation

Paul, Keryn; Polglase, Phil; Richards, Gary

Description

A credible and cost-effective methodology is needed to support the use of new tree plantations to offset greenhouse gas emissions, and ultimately to form part of an emissions trading scheme. A number of validated models of forest growth are available. However, there has been relatively little validation of models to predict changes in pools of C in litter and soil, and thus suitable for C accounting. A modelling approach is needed to track changes in soil C because direct measurements are...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorPaul, Keryn
dc.contributor.authorPolglase, Phil
dc.contributor.authorRichards, Gary
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-13T23:13:30Z
dc.date.available2015-12-13T23:13:30Z
dc.identifier.issn0304-3800
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/88167
dc.description.abstractA credible and cost-effective methodology is needed to support the use of new tree plantations to offset greenhouse gas emissions, and ultimately to form part of an emissions trading scheme. A number of validated models of forest growth are available. However, there has been relatively little validation of models to predict changes in pools of C in litter and soil, and thus suitable for C accounting. A modelling approach is needed to track changes in soil C because direct measurements are currently cost-prohibitive. Modelling approaches also allow for scenario analyses that can be useful for planning purposes. We used a complete C accounting model for forests, GRC3, to simulate patterns of change in soil C following afforestation under four test cases representing typical conditions in Australia. Soil C was predicted to initially decrease (usually during the first 10 years) before a gradual recovery and accumulation of soil C occurred. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine which parameters and inputs potentially cause the greatest uncertainty in calculated change in soil C using GRC3. Taking into account the Uncertainties in the values of parameters and inputs, initial (0-10 years) decrease in soil C was predicted to be 0.96-2.35% per year (or 4.16-14.8 t C ha-1) with a standard deviation between 0.10 and 0.43% per year among case studies, whereas the predicted increase in soil C (10-40 years) was predicted to be between 0.49 and 1.80% per year (or 7.57-24.4 t C ha-1) with a standard deviation between 0.18 and 0.69% per year. Results indicated that uncertainty could be greatly reduced by calibration of the fraction of above-ground litter transferred to soil C (i.e. humification), fraction of C lost by respiration during decomposition of litter, dead roots and soil C, and decomposition rates of the soil C pools. It was also important to obtain accurate input data for initial soil C content (including inert soil C), climatic conditions and allocation of net primary production to various tree components.
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.sourceEcological Modelling
dc.subjectKeywords: afforestation; ecological modeling; greenhouse gas; plantation; sensitivity analysis; soil carbon 3PG; Afforestation; FullCAM; GENDEC; Reforestation; RothC; Sequestration
dc.titleSensitivity analysis of predicted change in soil carbon following afforestation
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.description.refereedYes
local.identifier.citationvolume164
dc.date.issued2003
local.identifier.absfor070504 - Forestry Management and Environment
local.identifier.ariespublicationMigratedxPub17723
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationPaul, Keryn, Ensis - the joint forces of CSIRO and SCION
local.contributor.affiliationPolglase, Phil, CSIRO
local.contributor.affiliationRichards, Gary, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage137
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage152
local.identifier.doi10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00027-9
dc.date.updated2015-12-12T08:34:37Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-0038178240
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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