Smithson, Michael; McFadden, Michael; Mwesigye, Sue-Ellen
Aims: To conduct an empirical investigation of the efficacy of law enforcement in reducing heroin supply in Australia. Specifically, this paper addresses the question of whether heroin purity levels in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) could be predicted by heroin seizures at the national level by the Australian Federal Police (AFP) in the preceding year. Design: We considered two forms of evidence. First, a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) change-point model was used to discover...[Show more]
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