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Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest

Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Galbraith, David; Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Sitch, Stephen A; McSweeney, Carol; Meir, Patrick

Description

We examine the evidence for the possibility that 21st-century climate change may cause a large-scale "dieback" or degradation of Amazonian rainforest. We employ a new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests and from this deduce precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability. We then examine climate simulations by 19 global climate models (GCMs) in this context and find that most tend to underestimate current rainfall. GCMs also vary greatly in their...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2009
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/80328
Source: PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0804619106

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