Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest
Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Galbraith, David; Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Sitch, Stephen A; McSweeney, Carol; Meir, Patrick
We examine the evidence for the possibility that 21st-century climate change may cause a large-scale "dieback" or degradation of Amazonian rainforest. We employ a new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests and from this deduce precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability. We then examine climate simulations by 19 global climate models (GCMs) in this context and find that most tend to underestimate current rainfall. GCMs also vary greatly in their...[Show more]
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